The most popular multiple factors make the manufac

2022-08-06
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Many factors make the manufacturing boom cycle more than one leading industry. China is the fourth largest manufacturing country in the world, but it is far from a manufacturing power. In the critical period when China's economy is changing from the initial stage of heavy industrialization to the medium-term, and the mode of economic growth is in urgent need of change to enhance the momentum of development, it is particularly important to revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry. The rapid growth of China's economy, the accelerated transfer of global manufacturing industry to China and the long-term dependence on imports of a large number of high-tech and high-performance equipment have provided a huge market demand and broad alternative import space for the development of China's equipment manufacturing industry. With the improvement of independent innovation ability and the high attention paid by the state to the revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry, it is expected that the equipment manufacturing industry will be the fastest growing sub industry in the manufacturing industry in the next 5 ~ 10 years

experts pointed out that the driving force for the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry mainly comes from such factors as demand pull, industrial transfer, international comparative advantage, industrial policy support, key project drive and industry cycle recovery. The sub industries generally favored by the insiders with multiple driving forces include: aerospace, electrical and electrical appliances, ships, railway transportation equipment, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, medical equipment, metallurgical and mining equipment, CNC machine tools and environmental protection equipment

the development cycle characteristics of each industry are obvious.

from the perspective of the development process of the industry, each sub industry of the equipment manufacturing industry shows a certain periodicity. From the development of the global equipment manufacturing industry, the high growth period of the equipment manufacturing industry in the United States is after the 1940s, and its growth rate is three times that of other industries. The leading industries are aircraft, integrated circuit, etc; Japan's equipment manufacturing industry started in the 1950s and took off in the 1960s and 1970s. Electrical machinery is its leading industry; South Korea's equipment manufacturing industry started in the 1960s, took off in the 1970s and 1980s, and entered a period of prosperity in the 1990s. Shipbuilding, automobile and electronics industries are its leading industries. Compared with these countries, China's equipment manufacturing industry is in the early stage of high growth, and its growth is significantly higher than the current growth level of similar foreign companies

based on the analysis of the development process of the world's manufacturing industry, the per capita GDP is at the development stage of 1120 ~ 2100 US dollars, that is, the key period for the development of heavy industry from the initial stage to the middle stage. Compared with agriculture, mining, infrastructure and service industries, the growth rate of manufacturing output and total factor production is the fastest

according to the comparison of the average growth rate of sales revenue of various industries in China from 2003 to 2005, the growth rate of equipment manufacturing industry (mainly mechanical and electronic industry) ranks ahead of most industries, only lagging behind the coal, steel and non-ferrous metal industries. These three industries belong to the raw material mining and resource processing industries that should be focused on in the primary stage of manufacturing. According to the judgment on the development stage of the whole manufacturing industry, the manufacturing industry will be transformed from the primary stage to the intermediate stage in the future. The equipment manufacturing industry will become the focus of future development, and its growth rate will be significantly accelerated. In the next few years, the average growth rate of sales revenue of China's equipment manufacturing industry is still likely to reach 20% ~ 30%

the equipment manufacturing industry includes many sub industries and products. Due to the difference of upstream and downstream industries and the difference of policies or industrial competition environment, the prosperity of each sub industry of the equipment manufacturing industry shows obvious differences, and its cycle fluctuations are complex. Based on the analysis of the operation of each sub industry in 2004 and 2005, the sub industries with outstanding performance mainly include: container manufacturing, metal processing machinery, general equipment manufacturing, bearing valve manufacturing, metallurgical mining equipment, railway transportation equipment, shipbuilding, motor manufacturing, power transmission and distribution and control equipment manufacturing, electrical equipment manufacturing and general instruments and meters manufacturing

leading industries driven by different factors

according to the analysis of the driving factors of sub industries with high prosperity, the driving force mainly comes from two aspects:

first, the driving force within the industry. It mainly includes: vigorous downstream demand, such as railway transportation equipment, metallurgical and mining equipment, engineering machinery, etc; Cyclical recovery or recovery of the industry itself, such as engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, motorcycles, etc; Export driven by international comparative advantages, such as shipbuilding, engineering machinery, bearing valves, containers, port hoisting equipment, etc

second, the external driving force of the industry. It mainly includes: the guidance of national economic policies and the pull of national key investment projects, such as new rural investment, energy conservation and environmental protection investment, railway investment, etc; National policy support for the development of equipment manufacturing industry; The external driving factors provided by international industrial transfer, such as the development opportunities brought by the transfer of shipbuilding and construction machinery to China

from the analysis of driving forces, it can be seen that the boom of some sub industries comes from multiple driving forces of internal and external factors (see Table 3 for details), mainly including shipbuilding, railway transportation equipment manufacturing, engineering machinery, metallurgical and mining equipment manufacturing, agricultural machinery, medical equipment, port lifting equipment, etc. Therefore, compared with other sub industries of the equipment manufacturing industry, the above sub industries will maintain a high prosperity for a long time in the future, and their industry growth potential or growth potential may be higher

in addition, according to the data of China's manufacturing development goals and forecasts made by the Chinese Academy of Engineering in the early stage, the sub industries with fast annual growth rate in the next 5 to 10 years are mainly: cultural and office supplies machinery manufacturing, electronic computing machines, electrical appliances, aerospace, ships, railway transportation equipment, agricultural machinery, household appliances and other sub industries

based on the analysis of the above two aspects, the sub industries favored by the insiders include: aerospace, shipping, railway transportation equipment, engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and we can still know which material design produces higher mechanical properties "daily electrical appliances, medical devices, metallurgical and mining equipment, etc. In addition, as the basic equipment of the entire equipment manufacturing industry, CNC machine tools and environmental protection equipment that are in great demand due to energy shortage and environmental protection problems, although they are not a separate sub industry, their prospects are still promising

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CIMC mode faces challenges

experts point out that the technological leap can be achieved in a short time through introduction, digestion and absorption. On the basis of digesting technology and carrying out innovation, if enterprises can make full use of China's rich labor resources, broad market capacity and low-cost advantages, it will be easier to cultivate world-renowned enterprises such as CIMC group and Zhenhua Port Machinery Co., Ltd., which subdivide engineering machinery products

after more than ten years of development, CIMC has become the world's largest container manufacturer, accounting for about 60% of the global market share. Looking back on the development history of CIMC group, it has become the world's largest container manufacturer for the following important reasons: the rapid growth of domestic and foreign demand (the steady growth of global container trade volume, serious oil leakage in oil circuit system, oil pipe rupture and containerization of transportation); It has always occupied a leading position in the industry and has a high market share; Make use of the competitive advantage of low cost (including manpower, land, etc.) to implement the strategy of continuous scale expansion (from domestic to global); High enterprise management level and industry integration ability

in the past decade or so of China's economic development, from the manufacture of small products such as lighters and buttons to products such as electric fans, microwave ovens, refrigerators, air conditioners and televisions, many domestic and world leaders of segmented products rely on the same profit model to grow

it can be seen from the profit model of CIMC and other enterprises (see the figure below for details) that these products are basically labor-intensive products with very low technical content. Even for TV sets, air conditioners, refrigerators and other products with high technical content, their key components depend on imports. Domestic enterprises are still engaged in processing, assembly and other types of work with relatively low added value. Due to the relatively low added value and the rising prices of production factors (including manpower, land, transportation, water, electricity, etc.), the low-cost competitive advantage is gradually losing, leading to this profit model is facing greater challenges

compared with labor-intensive products, equipment manufacturing products are basically capital intensive and technology intensive products (see the figure below for details). Without high-quality products, strong independent innovation capability or R & D capability, and relying only on low-cost competitive advantages, it is impossible to develop into an international well-known enterprise or a world leading enterprise of a certain segment of products, including wind turbine, aviation, automobile and other fields, and it is difficult for enterprises to survive and develop for a long time. Therefore, China's equipment manufacturing enterprises must have the following conditions to develop and expand: the rapid growth of domestic and foreign demand ensures that the enterprises have room for sustainable development; It is in a leading position in the industry and has a high market share. The enterprise has the bargaining power and can avoid excessive competition to ensure sustainable development; Have the ability of independent innovation and can continuously invest in research and development, continuously improve the quality of the company's products and maintain the leading edge in technology; Take advantage of low-cost and high-quality competitive advantages to implement the scale expansion strategy; High enterprise management level and industry integration ability

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construction machinery: create better opportunities through three aspects

construction machinery is a typical investment driven industry, and its demand is greatly affected by the investment in fixed assets of the whole society. Although there is a certain cyclical fluctuation, the insiders believe that in the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" or even longer period, China's construction machinery enterprises will face better development opportunities, mainly driven by the demand of two markets at home and abroad, the world industrial transfer and the relative cost advantage

in the domestic market, there are still a large number of national key engineering construction in China during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, which will strongly stimulate the market demand for construction machinery in China. According to incomplete statistics, the global total output value of construction machinery is about US $100billion, and the total output value of several major varieties is about US $10billion. There is an obvious gap in China's construction machinery industry, so there is much room for improvement. Chinese products have strong cost performance advantages in the international market. In addition, at present, the increment of the global construction machinery industry mainly comes from developing countries. In addition, China has a large number of engineering contracts in the third world countries, which has created conditions for the export of China's construction machinery products

due to strong market demand and low-cost manufacturing advantages, China is becoming the focus of global engineering machinery industry transfer. Foreign enterprises such as Caterpillar, Komatsu, Hitachi, etc. have set up factories and distribution sites in China. Industrial transfer is not only a challenge but also an opportunity for China's construction machinery industry, because compared with aerospace, precision instruments, CNC machine tools and other products, the technical content of construction machinery products is lower

railway transportation equipment: investment and demand pull in both directions

for a long time, China's railway development lags behind economic development and market demand, resulting in a serious shortage of railway capacity. According to the medium and long term railway planning, by 2020, China will have built more than 12000 kilometers of passenger dedicated lines and about 16000 kilometers of new lines, and the national railway operating mileage will reach 100000 kilometers. Corresponding to this grand "blueprint", China's total railway investment will exceed 2trillion yuan by 2020, and the investment budget during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period will reach 1.25 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment

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